HousingWire’s 2026 Housing Forecast: A Year of Balance, Stability, and Slow‑Burn Momentum

After several years defined by extremes—historic bidding wars, record‑low inventory, rate shocks, and affordability crises—the 2026 housing market is finally stepping into something the industry hasn’t seen in a long time: balance. HousingWire’s 2026 forecast paints a picture of a market that is neither booming nor collapsing, but instead settling into a healthier, more predictable rhythm.

This shift matters. For buyers, sellers, and homeowners watching from the sidelines, 2026 offers something the last few years couldn’t: clarity.

Inventory Returns to Normal Levels

One of the most important signals in the forecast is the return of near‑normal inventory. After years of scarcity—where buyers competed for scraps and sellers held all the leverage—2026 opens with enough supply to support a functioning market again.

More inventory means:

• Fewer bidding wars

• More options for buyers

• More realistic pricing

• A healthier pace of sales

This doesn’t mean a buyer’s market. It means a fairer one.

Home‑Price Growth Cools to Sustainable Levels

HousingWire notes that home‑price growth has “cooled,” a welcome change from the runaway appreciation of 2020–2022. Prices aren’t falling dramatically, but they’re no longer sprinting ahead of incomes.

This moderation is driven by:

• Stabilizing mortgage rates

• Increased inventory

• More cautious buyer behavior

For sellers, this means pricing strategy matters again. For buyers, it means affordability—while still challenging—is no longer deteriorating at breakneck speed.

Mortgage Rates Become the Market’s Metronome

The forecast highlights a simple but powerful rule: Housing activity improves when mortgage rates fall below 6.64%, and it softens when rates rise above that threshold.

This “pivot point” becomes the market’s heartbeat.

• Below 6.64%: demand improves, buyers re‑enter, sales pick up

• Above 6.64%: activity slows, especially if rates push past 7%

This dynamic makes 2026 a year where rate watching becomes strategy, not speculation.

A Healthier Market Than 2020–2022

HousingWire is blunt about it: 2026 is a better environment for everyone than the “unhealthy” markets of the pandemic era.

Why?

• Inventory is back

• Prices are stable

• Rates are predictable

• Buyers and sellers are on more equal footing

This doesn’t mean 2026 is a boom year. It means it’s a functional one.

The 10‑Year Treasury Yield Still Calls the Tune

The forecast ends with a reminder: The 10‑year Treasury yield remains the best indicator of where mortgage rates—and therefore housing—are headed.

As the yield drifts, so does the market:

• Lower yield → lower rates → stronger demand

• Higher yield → higher rates → softer demand

For professionals, this is the metric to watch.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2026

For Buyers

2026 offers more breathing room than any year since 2019. With more inventory and slower price growth, buyers can make decisions based on fit—not fear.

For Sellers

Homes will still sell, but pricing discipline matters. The days of “list high and wait for the frenzy” are gone. Well‑prepared, well‑priced homes will outperform.

For Homeowners Watching the Market

Stability is the headline. If you’re planning a move, 2026 is a year where timing can be strategic rather than reactive.

The Bottom Line

HousingWire’s 2026 forecast is refreshingly simple: This is the year the market finally normalizes.

Inventory is back. Prices are steady. Rates are the swing factor. And after years of turbulence, buyers and sellers enter 2026 on solid ground.

-HousingWire, December 31, 2025, Logan Mohtashami